This is almost a repeat post.
The bulls say:
AMAT is strong, broadbased, gorilla, etc.
All true but by the same token, there is no way that AMAT will not be hurt severely because of their broad base.
The bulls say:
Asian problem already all factored in the market.
Not true. As of the close of yesterday, DOW up 16%, NASD up 23.2% and S&P500 up 20.2% for year. I don't see any bad news factored in at this rate of appreciation. Further more, there is no end in sight for Asia. In the mean time, Russia is starting to fall. AND the LATEST - Mexico.
The bulls say:
AMAT beaten down enough.
Not true. Look at AMAT as a company in 1996 when it was traded in the low teens and compare to AMAT today. Use whatever criteria you like - PE, PS, BV etc. Then ask yourself if AMAT should be worth more than twice today then the AMAT of 1996.
The bulls say:
Semi industry recovery soon(?)
How much recovery is required to use up excess capacity? Price may stabilize because of all the production cuts. If it is indeed stabilized, the fabs just ramp up to meet demand. When AMAT hit the teens in 1996, if I remember correctly, there were no where near the capacity we have now.
Just a couple of cents.
Ramsey |
