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I've been thinking that the main thing is that the rich people who have large positions [seems obvious, but tends to be ignored by homegrown market analysts -g-] and who (i) are cautious ["sell high"] and (ii) had a good 10 to 20% appreciation YTDate, and (iii) may be conscious of the October bad market habit and the general deterioration of global business conditions, would want to lighten up in advance, and remembering that last year there was a general peak on Aug 6, and historically it tends to shift earlier as everybody tries to sell before the other guy, therefore it may peak before the end of this month, in general. It is also supported by the closeness of my chart-derived price goals [OEX = 575 - 585]. This is the overall top, some darlings will peak out later. The aim for start of bk, therefore, would be mid Sept to mid Oct, and it normally runs for several weeks, plus, for the puts, one may want to give self a margin of error of a month or two. Market's very spooky now, though, as today shows, and if there is a significant event, can start off anytime. Thus I think the time to shop for the first 1/3 or 1/2 has arrived. |
