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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread
DELL 122.70+0.2%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: lin luo who wrote (1119)7/9/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: Ming  Read Replies (2) of 2578
 
Street a bit too bearish about Compaq. Could make for upside surprise there. But Dell's days atop the industry are numbered. Their advantage, which essentially consists of direct-sales and outsourcing production, is disappearing, as other firms are adopting these techniques too. Their business is essentially one of assembling PCS, which isn't that different from assembling cars or trucks.
The stock will rally in the short-term, to probably 115-120: the street is in love with it. But starting later in the year, investors will greet reality just like they did with Compaq this past Xmas. There won't be any winners in the long run: just a nasty price war and recurrent problems of oversupply. I refer you to the charts for NSM, MU, & AMD during the last 3 years for what I think is in store for PC makers for the next 3 years.
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