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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: EyeDrMike who wrote (11054)7/9/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (2) of 23519
 
<<Q3 will make or break this company>>

That is for sure.

My money says it will be a profitable quarter because:

1)SG&A expense of 12-15 million will be saved because of the restructuring.

2)An almost 500% increase in international product from Q1 to Q2 and MUSE has been fully launched only in England. A few more countries were started in Q2 but not at full scale. As I said before, I expect international sales to top 20 million for Q3.

3)New more cost efficient plant.

4)No major new plant expenses as in prior quarters.

5)Viagra media hype seems to have ended and now I am hearing a lot of adverse effects stories. Domestic MUSE sales should now begin to increase. As I mentioned before I am looking for 4,000+ new weekly scripts by months end.

6)Significant milestone payments in Q3--at least 2 if not 12 million.

If Q3 is not profitable then I believe Vivus would be forced to accept a buy-out plan. I myself think Vivus will do well on its own in Q3 which very well may allow them to sell out at >20/share in subsequent quarters. I think some of the buy-out candidates want to see how MUSE fares side by side with Viagra in countries like Mexico where they were released at about the same time. According to the info on the cc, MUSE thus far is doing well next to Viagra in Mexico.
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