I believe the analysts in fact were recommending CPQ at $23, as a longer term investment that would pick up in the winter/spring. They weren't crowing about it, but check it out and you'll find their recommendations. But then, you probably weren't buying at $23 either. That's because when CPQ was at $23 there was a reason it was at $23: serious inventory problems, until proven otherwise, which caused nearly all investors short-term despair and doubt. Now that it's at $31+9/16 there's a reason as well: inventory problems appear to be nearly resolved, until proven otherwise.
In my experience analysts usually crow only when there's something to crow about; it's the decibels that are largely inaccurate. They crowed about HWP as it was making a euphoric high; then the bubble burst from near $80 to about what, $55?. They crowed about SEG until it hit about $29, then it plummeted to approx. $19. SO WHAT? DOES THAT MEAN ANALYSTS ARE IDIOTS? Not at all. In fact HWP and SEG do have something to crow about, as does CPQ. BUT THE CROWING WAS FAR TOO LOUD! The analysts are right about CPQ, HWP, SEG, and many others, but it's up to the individual investor to choose the right time of entry.
Good luck! You'll need it if you ignore the analysts. You'll still need luck if you pay attention to them, but far less. |
