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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.04

-0.3%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: IBthinkin who wrote (14979)	7/10/1998 2:26:00 AM
From: The ChrisMeister	Read Replies (2) of 77400

Hard to argue with what you said. Why weren't you shaking me by the shoulders 5 years ago, telling me to buy this new company? Or, as Alan Kay at Apple says "perspective is worth 50 IQ points". It's easy to be a confident long once you're way in the clear years down the line and there's not a chance on the planet of ever being underwater. But it's very different for those considering the stock at the moment. And the odds don't favor another 1000% gain over the next five years. The key phrase in your post is "gut-wrenching corrections". Think of those who have bought in the last week or two above 90. They know there can be a 15% or 20% drop for practically no reason -- 40% if some really bad news were to come out and/or the market sours terribly. Happens to some stock virtually every day. Great companies are not immune. That makes people hesitant, uncertain whether now is the time. Or to wait for a pull-back which might not happen. No one wants to buy and just close their eyes, hoping for the best. Sure, you may get back to even at some point down the line, but there are no guarantees and at the very least you feel stupid. So it's a little too simple to just say that anytime is a good time to buy. For all anyone knows, the Dow could be at 4000 a year from now. It's small comfort knowing you paid way too much even for a company you like a lot. Or we could just go sideways for months, like we did for much of 1997. But I belabor the obvious. Sorry, I didn't want to sound like I was taking you to task because on the whole I agree with you. Good investments often (though not always) seem very expensive at the time you buy them. Anyway, I promise I'll be your best friend if you give me just 5% of your CSCO shares for my birthday... Got any current ideas that are as good as Cisco turned out to be over the last five years? Would you really buy today with your own money, or opt for something else that looks just a teensy bit better? ChrisMeister - who didn't know his screen went soooooo far over there to the right

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