To the angry bull: Testy, testy. The fur is flying, now, isn't it?
re:"why aren't you bears shorting" The simple answer to that is that I have. Since march, at various times, I've shorted ASMLF, KLIC, and NVLS. I posted all those trades in real time on this and other threads, and made money on all of them. And I've posted that if KLIC nudges back up to 17, I'll short it again. I choose the others instead of AMAT because they are more volatile.
re:"If AMAT is going to 12 " This is a paper tiger you're putting up. As has been explained repeatedly, a stock price of 13 (my number, at P/S=1) is the "worst-case" price, if everything possible goes wrong. It's at the outside edge of the range of possible futures. It's the price to have in the back of your mind, to keep you from buying too much on margin. My predicted high/low for 1998, back in February, was 40/22. 40 we've hit, exactly, and I think we've seen the high for the year. 22 as best-guess for the low still sounds about right. My year-end prediction, 40, I now think was too optimistic.
re: "it has already been discounted" You've been saying this since the stock was at 40. You are right that the market is responding less to bad news (KLIC, KLAC recently), and that is a sign of support for the sector. You are wrong that all the bad news is out. And you're wrong that it's in the stock. Rumors of pre-announcements are different than the real thing.
re: "Personally, I like the free exchange of info, but..." This is the second post you've made recently telling people to stop posting because you disagree with them.
re: "this is currently a one-way thread" You're right, it is one-way. Most posters are still far too bullish. It'll probably get more balanced when the stock breaks below 26, and we all start guessing where the real bottom is.
re: "you are trying to talk the stock down" I have clicked through hundreds of SI posts on many threads, alleging this. It seems to be the rebuttal of last resort, when posters are reduced to a sputtering rage, and can't think of anything rational to say.
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to teri: bull-baiting can be fun, but be careful. They haven't been fed in almost a year now, and that's made them very cranky. |
