Diamond: I think you are right. The market is responding to a driving force of individuals caught up in the acceleration of the internet stocks. IMHO an illogical upward movement which they are creating, by trading back and forth with themselves through out the day. IMHO there is no financial integrity to support the valuation these stocks are achieving. Sure there is some fast money to be made, but it is borderline as to when the bottom is going to let go. There will be swift, shocking, disbelief to those intoxicated with the ride up who find themselves caught in the spiral to the bottom. A quick look at the charts for Micron and Prestek, two high flyers that took steep, deep tumbles, even though they were "sure" to continue to spin into the heights.
When I pursue analyzing the oil drilling sector it is immensely undervalued. Stocks selling for $14 per share valued at $38 a share, stocks selling for $32 a share valued at $72 a share. Companies with no debt. Then I examine the Internet stocks and see some company with a value of $5 a share selling for $40 a share, or valued at $18 a share and selling for $195 a share. Multiply the companies current selling prices by stock issues and they are priced at phenomenal values that may or may not prove to be supported years from now.
Zapata, an interesting stock, and an interesting pursuit to change oil into sausages, straw manufacturing and the internet. Maybe they can pull it off, maybe they will become the largest in the world. When I read a few of their Edgar filings, I found myself wondering why it all sounded too good. Could be my cautious trepidations at work? Time will tell.
My blue meanie streak is talking here. And I hate sounding like a spoiler, but, I can't refrain from observing that similar circumstances influenced the world of real estate in the late '70's when the drive to making fistfuls of money meant double escrowing sales, and buyer's and seller's were glassy eyed with the intoxication of turning over substantial sums of cash - no capital gains tax then. Prices kept rising with each sale, then the bubble stretched so thin that the inevitable burst collapsed the market over night and it died, sales dried up, followed by foreclosures as people began to realize the party was over and they walked away from their losses.
It appears to me there is a similar party going on in certain sectors of the stock market, and the intoxication of participants is on the rise, and it is intoxication that is driving parts of this market. There is cash to be made, and who knows, maybe it will just keep going up for imagined reasons that I don't understand.
Or perhaps there will be a return to values that are based on sound principals. Profits might be a little slower to be realized, but they would be enduring profits.
The present circumstances reminds me of kiting checks.
Well that's it from Ms. Negativity for this evening. It is MHO. I wish successes to all, and to all a good night. I'll go back to lurking now.
Rose |
