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Net Population Smaller Than Most Think
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- By Bob Woods, Newsbytes
While other research firms and companies have recently estimated that some 50
million to 70 million people - and even as high as 100 million people - use
the Internet in the US, a new report by eMarketer claims the figure is closer
to 37 million as of June 1998. EMarketer also said that the World Wide Web
isn't worldwide - at least not now.
That 37 million figure represents 18.5 percent of US adults 18 and older, the
company's "eOverview Report" said.
eMarketer also said that by the end of 1998, the number of active users will
increase to 47 million, and account for 23.5 percent of US adults. In
addition, the study showed that one new user goes online every 1.67 seconds in
the US, which breaks down to 52,000 users every day, 365,000 per week and 1.58
million new Net users each month.
Many surveys of the Net population as of late have put the number of people
accessing the world wide network of computers at somewhere between 50 million
and 70 million people. And late last month, one survey had the number of
people with the ability to access the Internet at more than 100 million
(Newsbytes, Jun. 29, 1998).
"We feel that some of the surveys out there are a total exaggeration of the
market," an eMarketer spokesperson said. "But we're not commissioned by anyone
to do these studies, nor are we backed by a big entity."
In addition, eMarketer "statsmaster" Geoffrey Ramsey said that his company
employs a stricter standard for what constitutes a Net user. "The report only
considers people who regularly get online -- real users -- at least once or
twice a week, and at least for a period of one to two hours per week," states
Ramsey.
Internet activities include surfing the World Wide Web and accessing e-mail,
"most any use of the Internet," the company spokesperson said.
People who go on the Internet less are a part of the "dabbler factor," Ramsey
said. Dabblers, or people who say they've been "on the Net" when they've
actually accessed it only once or twice, can inflate Internet usage statistics
by as much as 10 to 15 percentage points, Ramsey said.
eMarketer also eliminates people who try using the Internet, but then drop out
for any reason. Based upon 1997 and 1998 net user figures, the eOverview
Report calculates a churn rate of 28 percent, meaning that over one-quarter of
all US Internet users have stopped going online within the past 12 months.
"When you eliminate the Dabblers and Drop-Outs, suddenly the Net doesn't look
quite so big," Ramsey said. But at the same time, eMarketer is calling for
huge growth figures in both the US and worldwide over the next few years.
Based on year-end figures, individual Internet users in the US are expected to
increase 300 percent to 85 million by 2002 from 28 million in 1997, eMarketer
said. In addition, US Net households will number 44 million by 2002, up from
the 18 million estimated to be online as of mid-year 1998.
World wide, eMarketer places the total number of Net users at a little over 60
million, as of mid-year 1998. But two-thirds of that population reside in the
US and Canada, which has more than 4 million users. What's more, eMarketer
said about 90 percent of Internet users today are English-speaking, and the
top nine countries in Net links per 1,000 people are either English-speaking
or Nordic.
But with a rapid growth rate expected for Europe, the Asia/Pacific Rim, South
America and several underdeveloped world regions, eMarketer projects that
Yanks will be outnumbered by non-US users by 2000.
eMarketer said it pulls together hundreds of published, "reputable" sources
for its reports, and presents that data alongside its own analyses, estimates
and projections. The company does not conduct its own primary research. "The
result: each report reflects the collected wisdom of numerous research firms,
industry gurus and analysts, including but not limited to ourselves," company
officials have said.
The eOverview Report costs $495, eMarketer said, and is now available from the
company.
Earlier this year, eMarketer's "1998 eCommerce Report" stated that consumers
will buy 14 times more goods and services via the World Wide Web in 2002 than
they did last year. eMarketer's report also said that consumers will spend $26
billion in purchases on the Web by 2002.
Consumer-based e-commerce revenues totaled $1.8 billion in 1996. Such revenues
will reach the $26 billion mark in 2002 because of improved technology,
security, user-friendly Web sites and increased worldwide penetration of PCs
and modems, eMarketer said.
Business to business e-commerce will account for the majority of Web- based
revenues through 2002, which is estimated to be at $268 billion. By
comparison, business-to-business e-commerce totaled $5.6 billion in 1997 and
$16 billion in 1998, eMarketer said.
eMarketer's Web site is at emarketer.com .
Article posted on 07/09/98
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