in reference to the prior ? re: when AXC will pick up revenue from KM contracts--
No, they won't get any $ in 96 for any contracts. In fact, there is about a 6-12 month time lag from the signing of an agreement to actual delivery of KM disks and change of $, which AXC reported in their 10Q I believe is the normal lead time for bringing a new line of hard drives into production. So actual revenue increases aren't expected till 2nd half of 97, and 98 will be the first full year of contracts. What will happen to the stock is another matter. It could easily double from here (10) on the news of several contracts, and then go up even more as analyst estimates go way up for 97-99. The trick is to profit the most from the actual runup in stock price, which usually peaks LONG BEFORE the actual eps peak, especially in a market mania or an individual stock buying frenzy. If AXC gets popular in 97, which I fully expect, the price will reach it's high long before it's eps does, if I've learned anything from past growth & momentum plays. Momentum players run these babies up way past reason (in this case I think $80-$100 is expectable 12-18 months out based on what I think eps estimates COULD be, assuming hi disk drive penetration rates and a great profit margin for a proprietary, revolutionary and fully patented product) way faster than is reasonable, so catch this tiger by the tail now, but jump off before the ride is over and the tiger turns on you! |
