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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?
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To: Joe Dancy who wrote (2078)7/10/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 2754
 
Joe,

I have no doubt - now is the time to invest in the sector. Those who do will make a killing. Looking back over the last few years, the message seems to be - keep your powder (money) dry until the sector really goes into the dumps.

My mistake was investing too early in the down cycle. I am not worried about getting my money back and making a good profit eventually, but I was way too early. As an example, I bought AFLX at 16 a few weeks ago - I could have bought it yesterday at 8. The stock will go to 30+ at some point and I will have a 2 bagger. That's good but it would have been much better to have a 4 bagger.

The sector may not be at the bottom yet. PLAB got blasted yesterday by pre-announcing less than hoped for earnings. It was around 15 yesterday, but I saw an estimate that it will go to 8 before it turns around. I doubt that, but then I doubted many things during the past months that turned out to be true.

If history continues to repeat itself in this sector, the way to play it is to invest every 2 years when it has really descended into the pits, ride the up-wave for 6 months, sell at the peak and then wait for 2 years until the process happens all over again. Investing at any other time only leads to ulcers.:)
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