Gregg,
Thanks for your comments. We can debate all day what is considered a launch, but the fact remains that the LS-120 has been in the marketplace for a few years, and its predecessor floptical drive was in development back to the late 80's and early 90's. The fact remains that backwards compatibility is not enough of a differentiator to sink zip - regardless if it's marketed by Imation, the consortium, or Sony.
Granted. I'll give you the numbers on OEMs and expected installed base, but what is and what might be are two extremely different issues. Clik - might be. Zip is. LS-120 installed base - might be.
I don't think it is premature to assume that backwards compatibility is a dead issue. The first wave of buyers - the early majority that determines the adoption of a product (according to a variety of high-tech marketers) have adopted zip. So the LS-120 battle is more than just hollow numbers in a press release. Granted you can make installed base comparisons, but I think that is highly premature considering Q3/Q4 is the retail buying season - so we can't compare Iomega's first half to Imation's back half, apples to oranges.
I agree with you on the "enthusiastic" responses to short viewpoints. But, packaging is everything. Personally I have had some great discussions with bears on this thread, as long as things are kept from becoming a sandbox fight we can have some meaningful dialogue.
I'll give you some of your numbers - basically because its speculative, I would throw out that your retail disk price is off as well as the margins, and I believe your tie rates are about 40% off(low) today. But considering the shift to an OEM model, your number is a good forecast.
You can bet the SG&A number will change dramatically with new management and a new focus. IMO Iomega will not come close to spending $100mm in advertising this year, it will most likely come in around $50-60mm - and consider that most of that has already been spent. Plus the layoffs across the board will take care of another big chunk. IMO Iomega will return to profitability by mid Q3.
Good luck with your investment, and thanks again for your comments - I'll tuck it away in my reference box.
take care |
