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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 220.66+1.6%3:59 PM EST

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To: UFGator93 who wrote (9904)7/10/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: umbro  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
Some AMZN options stats:

Next week is expiration Friday. With AMZN's volatility it's tempting
to take a position in the July options, but I'm not too sure what
I'd try, right now. I'm tempted to sell a 120/110 call credit spread,
for $2. Anyway here's some stats as of today:

Options Forecast for: JUL
put price: 94.01 OI = 11141 VOL = 1274
call price: 107.13 OI = 7388 VOL = 472
consensus: 99.21 R = 1.5 R = 2.7
Options Forecast for: AUG
put price: 83.41 OI = 5334 VOL = 251
call price: 115.37 OI = 2154 VOL = 287
consensus: 93.34 R = 2.5 R = 0.9
Options Forecast for: OCT
put price: 79.88 OI = 1281 VOL = 10
call price: 120.44 OI = 2915 VOL = 46
consensus: 109.43 R = 0.4 R = 0.2
net long/short: -0.56 mil.

Above, this is looking at options with strikes between 90 and 110.
R is the put/call ration. Some would say that a P/C ratio of
greater than 2 is bullish, or less than 0.5 bearish (contrarian
argument). The "call price" and "put price" are the breakeven
prices (OI weighted) on the long call or put options. The
"consensus" is a weighted average of those prices. If this has
any predictive value, it's saying flat by next Friday, down
into August, and back up to the top of the range in October.

A July 100 straddle costs about $13 so that gives you a feel for
just how high the implied vols. are. I don't know how much
control the options traders have over AMZN, but the option sellers
will make good money if they can close AMZN at 100 next week.
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