**OT**
re: Sorry if I appear dense, but I don't understand your logic on this
Bob
DELL is the best representation of the burrent bull market.
Since mid 1994, the market has gone up.
There have been no true pullbacks.
The average anual return for 1995-today is something in the 30% range.
There are millions of new investors that think this is normal.
They all think it is easy.
I am a stock broker. It seems like almost daily I have a client that says I don't need to pay you, I am going to get my info from the internet and trade on the internet and invest all of my retirement $$ in the VG S&P index fund.
Well that would have been a great idea in 1994, but no one expected the market to do what it did as fast as it did.
In 1968, mutual funds were a small rage. in 1974, over 40% of fund companies went out of business because they lost all of the money they had. No one thinks that can happen today and if it does, there is the greater fool mentality...that they will see it before everyone else and be the first to get out. A highley unlikely outcome.
To me, Dell represents this attitude and mentality or what ever you want to call it in a single stock.
DELL has done well, and its stock should have appreciated.
But I think it has gone overboard.
Almost everyone on this thread disagrees with me on this, but I think DELL is no different than the DRAM makers or the HDD guys, or any other HW OEM.
In a good market, 1-2 times sales. not 5 or 10.
In a bad market, the stock will be lucky to stay at 1 X sales.
This may seem hard to believe, but as times change so do attitudes and expectations.
For DELL as well as the market, this will happen. Days, months, years, from now?? I don't know when. I do the trend has over extended itself from historic norms. There is no new paradigm. People are people, fear and greed are universal and change very little over time on a mass psychlogical basis.
DELL is just the single best representation of a situation that is percieved as natural, but is not.
Jim
PS, next time I will try to be a little more long winded.
PPS I did not prof read this so if it does not make sence sorry. |
