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New cold war between China & West could emerge, though that is unlikely, given the amount of economic linkage between the two. Commodity prices will remain depressed if peace endures. Whatever the increased demand will be from Asia, once it digs itself out of its current mess, will be satisfied by new production, either from the development of new fields or new technological breakthroughs in exploration or production. The problem with gold is that it is recyclable, and that the world stockpile is ever increasing. If gold were not recognized as a store of value, then its worth would only be a minor fraction of what it is. A new bull market in gold willonly emerge if global calamity strikes, and massive economic disruption occurs, disruptions that undermine the value of paper assets like the U.S. dollar. If the worst possible scenarios concerning y2k materialize , then that would certainly breed a bull run for POG. otherwise, I see no reason for gold to regain its lustre any time soon, besides the fact that most of the world's mines are not economical at current prices. |
