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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS)

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To: biodoc who wrote (1422)7/10/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Rudy Saucillo  Read Replies (2) of 2173
 
I don't believe they had a choice of a partnership vs. a secondary offering.

Their last quarterly (3/31) shows they had $35mm in cash and equivalents and spent $21mm during the quarter on R&D and G&A. That's a substantial burn.

They state that they have restructured and believe they have funds for continued operations into 1Q99. If they can indeed get to Jan.'99, that's a *substantial* restructuring given the ongoing clinical trials. Since it's difficult to project their operating expenses, I'll simply assume for the sake of discussion that they are projecting accurately.

As a previous poster pointed out, this gives them less than 6 months of cash. This is a major red flag. They had no choice but to raise money and the funds from a 3mm share offering won't take them far. The goal is clearly to get to the end of the year, see positive Euro data, and turn around a quick partnership.

As I've said, I sincerely hope they generate positive results. But this is a very high risk situation.

Regarding my partnership comment, it frustrates me to no end that Murphy floats bogus rumors and people react. Realistically, why would any pharma invest in this high risk situation without seeing compelling data?

Rudy
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