These are good questions. . . . Here is one good INS answer.
I think there are a few factors at work. First, IDX mismanaged analyst expectations last quarter and is paying dearly for it now. Second, the whole biometrics sector has been taken down about fifty percent, IDX included. Finally, IDX has decided not to participate in the frothy "alliances" and NRID-like PR of "intentions", so it is getting ignored.
Despite all that, and underneath all that, this is the healthiest company in the field, and growing very well. I bought more today, and now have what I consider to be a lot.
My prediction: We will see announcements this month, ending up with an OK but not great earnings (i.e., at or just above predictions) on good but not spectacular revenues (say, about $23 million). However, based on what I can figure out, next quarter is the blowout quarter.
I think this company HAS the INS deal -- and I don't base this on company-provided info. I think it is impolitic for them to announce it, since last time it leaked it led to a new bidding process and tied the INS up in its own red tape. I believe that problem has been solved on the INS side so they can install the machines they need to have installed by September 30. I base this on a conversation I have had with a clued-in INS official, obeying certain ground rules so that no confidentiality was breached. In other words, I couldn't ask directly about company names, but I am familiar enough with the circumstances to decode the description I received. We have also not seen any announcements from competitors, which I view as confirmation under the circumstances. These revenues will not be hidden in ANADAC, either.
Probably that INS deal will show up in revenues next quarter, if not this time. We might look for government receivables during the next two reporting periods. I think next quarter will show revenues from Cook County, and some bio-ID, both already announced as deals.
I repeat, I do not base these remarks on any inside information from the company. Nor do I guarantee this information for investment purposes. Do your own due diligence. But I have confidence in these conclusions, and have acted on them. |
