Stan Weinstein Says Dump SPNSF..
quote.com
Excerpt..
"Market Monitor"-StanWeinstein - "The Professional Tape Reader"
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Stan Weinstein, the editor and publisher of the widely followed "Professional Tape Reader Market Letter" and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Stan.
STAN WEINSTEIN, EDITOR, "THE PROFESSIONAL TAPE READER": Always my pleasure,Paul.
KANGAS: What kind of a summer rally is this? Fits and starts, it just can't seem to hang on, on the upside, very tentative.
WEINSTEIN: You're absolutely right. I've been saying that it was going to be a very selective B rally and maybe it's even a B- rally. You see, today is a good example. You actually had more declines than advancers on the New York Exchange, new highs and new lows were almost equal. It's a very selective rally that has to be played very carefully.
KANGAS: Do you think it's going to be short-lived?
WEINSTEIN: It's already been going almost a month. Maybe it goes for a few more weeks, but I think the best of the rally price wise is behind us.
KANGAS: Does that mean if it doesn't extend much further, the bull market is dead, or do you stillhave long term indicators .
WEINSTEIN: I don't want to say dead, but I think you're in the ninth inning. I see a lot of signs we should get in this program. We're in the ninth inning of a bull market. Got to be very careful. If we don't resolve some of these problems this summer, I think we have a big problem after maybe September.
KANGAS: What problems?
WEINSTEIN: Oh, we have so many problems. First of all you take a look. S&P Composite's gone to a new high. Dow hasn't confirmed. Transportations haven't confirmed. The advance decline line hasn't confirmed. So there are a lot of divergences and if we don't like those negative divergences after this summer, I think come September, October, we could have a very serious problem in this market.
KANGAS: What's better to be in, the big cap or the small cap issues? Now last time you were with us, last August, you said the big caps are going to do better, the blue chips, and it's been the case all along.
WEINSTEIN: I still think it will be that way. Actually the small caps, while they haven't done as well,were at least decent, Paul, up until April. Then the Russell2000 has topped out. Since then it's been all the big caps, and that's another ninth inning sign. I think from here to the end of the bull market, it's going to be big caps, not the small.
KANGAS: On your last visit with us, you have nothing to be ashamed of. You said hold Costco (NASDAQ:COST). It was 37. Now it's 63. What do we do?
WEINSTEIN: We hold it.
KANGAS: OK. Sunbeam (NYSE:SOC) was at 39. You had bought it lower, and you said stay with
it, but it went to 53 and now it's down to 10. But I think you got out.
WEINSTEIN: We got out, when I broke 40, right.
KANGAS: I saw that in your letter. OK and then you liked UAL (NYSE:UAL) which is about 10 points higher. Stay with that?
WEINSTEIN: Stay with it.
KANGAS: OK and Alumax (NYSE:AMX) at 41. It's now about 46.
WEINSTEIN: Get out.
KANGAS: Get out. OK. There are new recommendations then, Dime Bancorp (NYSE:DME) at 19. It's now 32.
WEINSTEIN: Stay with it.
KANGAS: OK. Bethlehem Steel (NYSE:BS) was 11. Went to 17. Now it's back to 12.
WEINSTEIN: I'd get out.
KANGAS: OK. And Sapiens (NASDAQ:SPNSF) International at 7. It's now 8.
WEINSTEIN: Get out.
KANGAS: OK and Egghead. This is your star. Egghead.com was 6 then. It hit 20 today.
WEINSTEIN: I think it's time to take the profit. We've got 300 percent. Go for it.
KANGAS: And 800-JR Cigar (NASDAQ:JRJR), 24. It's down 2 points. That's the only substantial loser.
WEINSTEIN: It actually first went to 39. We sold out when it broke 34. I'd sell it out here.
KANGAS: OK. What do you like new?
WEINSTEIN: Oh, there are a lot of them, but let me just focus a couple. First I want to give everybody stop losses for anything I recommend in this dangerous market.
KANGAS: How far away from the place?
WEINSTEIN: I'll tell you. Com Air (NASDAQ:COMR). I'd be buying Com Air as you pull back to 30, 32 with a 27 3/8 sell stop. I also like General Instruments (NYSE:GIC). We'll extend it. As it pulls back to 25, I'd buy that with a 20 sell stop. Also like Platinum Technology (NASDAQ:PLAT). Again,let it pull back, maybe 30 would be a good price with a 25 sell stop. And finally Quixote Corp. (NASDAQ:QUIX). I'd buy that here and more aggressively at 13 with 11 1/2 sell stop.
KANGAS: OK. What stocks to avoid here?
WEINSTEIN: We could take the whole program, but here are a couple I think you especially stay away from. Brylane (NYSE:BYL), Dress Barn (NASDAQ:DBRN), Lockheed (NYSE:LMT), Mentacorp, PACCAR (AMEX:PCA) and Pillowtex (NYSE:PTX). All have very bearish .
KANGAS: Would you actually short them?
WEINSTEIN: Listen as I want to do it, because too much time by.
KANGAS: What about the Internet stocks? They're wild and crazy.
WEINSTEIN: I think that the Internet stocks are telling us two things. That you're in the ninth inning of the bull market. It's the most excessive speculation I've ever seen, goes beyond 1968. So it's dangerous for the overall market. We know how it ends. And for those stocks themselves, I think they made at least short-term tops.
KANGAS: You have to be very nimble. We have ...
WEINSTEIN: I'm too old for that.
KANGAS: We have 30 seconds left Stan. Let's talk about first bonds.
WEINSTEIN: OK. Bonds, last time I was very bullish on bonds.
KANGAS: Yes you were.
WEINSTEIN: Now it's more a "hold" than a "buy." They're extended. I'd stay with them. If we ever break below 118 on the long term bond, then I would be a seller.
KANGAS: You didn't like gold last time and of course it's done nothing and what do you think of it now?
WEINSTEIN: At best, neutral. We can put money in better places. It has to go above 302 to even turn moderately positive.
KANGAS: Everybody says 5 percent of your portfolio should be in gold stocks. Do you have one that you like?
WEINSTEIN: No. I got to wait for gold to go above 302.
KANGAS: And that's it.
WEINSTEIN: That's it.
KANGAS: OK. All right, so you really are getting cautious here.
WEINSTEIN: Very cautious.
KANGAS: All right. Stan, thanks very much for being with us.
WEINSTEIN: Always my pleasure.
KANGAS: My guest, market monitor, Stan Weinstein, "The Professional Tape Reader."
DD |
