Dear thread......
I have just wadded through a bunch of messages, and am truly amazed by the blinkers.... Many are treating this earnings warning as a run-of-the-mill.... shit we're gonna miss by a few cents kind of thing... WRONG.... I have been saying for a number of weeks that AMAT will lose money in the 4th Quarter of this year... they have basically told us that this is so... but perhaps the most frightening thing is THAT 300MM is a pipe-dream.... the transition (that was according to JM, the #1 reason to own this stock) has simply vanished, along with the capex expended on its behalf.... believe me this is not in the price now, nor will it be at 25 or even 20.... AMAT has committed nearly a billion on an expansion that they did not need, when is this - the mother of all write-offs gonna be taken... my guess would be october- november.... SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT....
My guess is that little happens right now.... Lehman and MS will come out and support the stock, saying its a must have for the new millenium, to protect their previous rants, and mugs will buy on weakness, because that's what they're trained to do... AMAT will do 19 cents... because that's how the game's played, in the hope that everything turns around.... TO ME THAT'S THE BIG DOWNSIDE PLAY.... BECAUSE after this earning report the stocks gonna crumble until it finds reality.... wall street hates to hang on to stock knowing there's a loss to come.... My guess is that AMAT loses money $Q and more 1st Q next year, and rationalizes like a Mother------- my guess is that you should buy puts on the first bounce and buy stock below 24, but not big until 21... my guess is that the Naz corrects 20% from this level sometime this year and that in that mess AMAT hits 15.... 10,000 X 15 = 150,000 ----- 10,000 x 100 = 1,000,000 damn I've just explained how to become a millionaire and I don't even have a book out yet, |
