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Technology Stocks : AOL, now I get it

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To: Monir Mamoun who wrote (176)12/5/1996 1:16:00 PM
From: Tom Lu   of 496
 
Monir,

Thank you for the analysis and experience. Nevertheless, I don't think it will continue to move up at current level,

First, it has gained 80% from Nov 13, and almost 100% from Oct 15, I don't think any institution would support a company w/ $3.42 LOSS to any higher, even so, it will only make this baby drop sharper.

Secondly, Internet is a booming market, locking you monthly fee at $19.95 for 2 years won't be so wise a decision from any way of thinking, we all well remembered AOL charged us $2.95/per hour before it was forced to adjust the rate to xxx/month, I predict w/ the competition getting fierce, more competitors will drive the price lower not higher, and current price still have space to go down. Let alone it already has enough competitors such as MSNBC, Compuserve, Netcom, etc.

Thirdly, the 100 day average moving line is still around $28 - $30, going along w/ the broader market, it has almost 20% space to correct itself.

I am shorting it @$40.5, let's cross finger and see.

IMO,

Tom
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