Jacob,
For what it's worth, I am sitting here at home with my kids screaming in the background, and it fully strikes me that there is not enough concern about amat because everyone is sure the bounce will eventually occur. Aki's scenario MUST play out for amat to see the high teens or worse.......
......say it's September and the nas is dropping like a rock for whatever reason...mm's looking around for what to dump, see that the small caps are still dirt cheap, they don't have net stocks, they don't want to sell much msft or csco, the sky is falling around them, they sell amat. The other mm's see amat dive through "support" so they sell, with the thought that it is finally dropping to where it should be anyway...buyers are paralyzed, thinking that everything is crashing and amat is a dead dog for awhile anyway, so they would rather buy msft or csco, which of course have gotten cheaper, too. Everyone stays away for a day, a week, maybe 3 weeks. Sanity prevails after it spins at 15-17, with "investors" realizing that business is turning within a few months....the gold rush begins, but is not clean like we imagine, it goes in ugly fits and starts, big bursts that seem premature, with scary pullbacks of 20%.......
A buying plan should be prepared this weekend. Best wishes to all.
|
