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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (5141)7/11/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: Frodo Baxter  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
>BTW the original statement was from Fox, it wasn't mine, so don't shoot the messenger

Well, let's see what you said: "hogs**t? I thought so...and then I started looking at how the banks run their operations, and thought it could be true if part of the trading profits is a fee charged to conduct the exchange."

Now that's interesting. Since I'm into this sort of stuff, I asked you to share the fruits of your labor. Instead of answering constructively, you go off on a weird tangent about how "the money center banks are in a sorry mess, of the several I sampled the net earnings fell." Which is neither true nor relevant.

>I did look at Citibank and Chase, and your link seems to be consistent with my statement if you scrape off the usual facade put on these things to keep the happy ignorants in the dark for another year. The only thing that's saving them is that immense drop in US interest rates, trading and fees, and "adjusted" numbers to give the desired EPS.

So if you exclude all the profitable activities that banks engage in, they wouldn't be making any money, eh? That's an, ummm, interesting argument.

>BTW, it is not possible to determine the percentage of total revenue derived from currency trading and fees based upon this information you so graciously provided.

Well, my investigations of their 10Qs uncovered no evidence of abnormally high profitability from trading currencies. But as you've "started looking at how the banks run their operations, and thought it could be true," I naively thought you could shed light on this matter. I guess not.

>oh, I forgot to note the convenient statement about the temporary "extension" of the $22 billion in short-term loans to Korea that was omitted from the balance sheet calculations but noted at the bottom.
READ IT!!!!!!
:-( But I'm just sure you found that in your thorough review.

Oh please. Here's the statement in full context: "Negotiations among the Republic of Korea and international creditor banks, which were chaired by Citibank, were successful in extending the maturities of nearly $22 billion in short-term loans to Korean banks. Pursuant to the terms, on April 8, 1998 Citibank exchanged $398 million of such loans for new loans guaranteed by the Republic of Korea with maturities of one, two, and three years." Are you suggesting that the $22 billion in loans owed to all manner of international banks should all be placed on Citi's books? Or that Citi should write down their guaranteed sovereign loans? Do you really believe that Korea will not honor her debts?!!???!

You inhabit a strange world indeed, where money center banks are able to make a killing trading currencies, operating in the most frictionless and efficient marketplace in the world, yet losing billions in transacting their core competency: lending.

Whatever.
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