Sorry to change the subject. But I'm guessing the currency trading by banks discussion is over with?
So how about the liquidity discussion once again. I realize the Euro is going to be a serious contender for the US$ and may effect our liquidity picture. But it's still 6 months away from even existing and I'm somewhat in agreement with Stitch, that it will take time for it to be a serious contender. After all, Europe is just beginning to get their economic houses in order and it is going to go through some growing pains. And it's not like the mark, pound(asumming UK will be a part of EU soon), franc, etc. aren't already players. When the Euro is born, these will go through a conversion first before new money even begins to come in.
I'm certainly not any sort of expert on the EU, but I don't read too much about the Euro being a serious threat to the US$ in the near term future. Longer term, yes. Short term, no. Heck the DJIA moved up what, some 15% in the first half of 98. Six months is turning out to be a long time in our current US Goldilocks Investment Land.
But, is liquidity going to be able to continue driving the market throughout the summer? Can liquidity overcome whatever problems arise in the next few weeks, due to, "Asia did it to me," announcements? Even some candy company blamed Asia on their woes yesterday. Then AMAT comes out and warns again. Usually a very big deal, but seems to be meeting Wall Street with somewhat of a yawn.
In other words, the Asian crisis certainly seems to have breached our shores, everyone knows it, and still the market is on an upward path. So the logical answer is good old liquidity. But can it continue?
Zeev, how do the turnips look now? Awhile back, I believe, you said they were predicting a rally until a mini-meltdown around the end of July, then a rally back up to around end of September, before a larger correction. Then, if the correction happens, off to the races once again (everything from memory so I could easily be wrong in the details).
Thanks,
MikeM(From Florida) |
