Skeeter, Pisani's screw-up on the very difficult "technical"/"fundamental" dichotomy when referring to DRAM's in a way wasn't really a screw-up (but don't tell him that).
There are mini-cycles within the larger industry cycle. The thing that makes Joseph and Niles not-so-great in my eyes and a guy like Kurlak still the one to watch is being able to discern when a mini-cycle does signal a change in the long-term cycle. IMHO, we're in the upswing of a mini-cycle within the DRAM industry, similar to what occurred back in the late-December-February. period.
On balance, I'd say some of the drivers are more positive this time around than last for MU. Whether it's "the real thing", who knows?
It looked like "the real thing" back in the late-December-February mini-cycle and it wasn't.
But it looks like the most active contract was the Aug 30 call (so, maybe you could say a little rolling has already begun) and as of yet, the open interest in the August puts doesn't suggest a lot of people looking for a pullback.
From the TA end weekly MACD 12-26-9 histogram turned positive (although, IMHO the best early signals are upticks after a strong move to the negative side). Still under the 30-week moving average, but poised to test it.
If enough people believe something, it's true...
...until they stop believing <g>
Good trading,
Tom
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