*AV*--Patrick and I are kdding around relative to CYMI from only one perspective. Patrick rarely dabbles in stocks and when he does, he usually is very careful about it. So when he does we joke about it if it doesn't perform immediately.
HOWEVER, I will tell you unequivocally that CYMI is one of the BEST investments (not daytrade) one could make in the semiconductor sector. I find it one of the top 3 picks for tremendous success in this arena. There is nothing to replace DUV lithography at this time that is even close to being as cost effective from numerous prespectives. I will not go into specific details and the only reason I say top 3 is because I want to cover my bases by not saying it is my #1 pick. They own almost all of the major markets for their products by way of the top 4 DUV stepper/scanner suppliers. Even though the industry is in a bad downturn, IT WILL COME BACK. When it does, CYMI will fare better than most of the companies and will probably go up a larger percentage than the NVLS, KLAC, TER, LRCX types of companies. CYMI could be considered a one product company but it is really a one critical subcomponent supplier that eveyone will have to turn to directly or indirectly, when they bring up DUV processes.
CYMI is going to return a respectable profit to all those invested in it. It is whether it will be in 3 months, 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. I am 100% confident that it will occur in the next 24 months and am of the opinion the sector will be bottom scraping for the next 2-3 quarters. I refuse to miss this great opportunity by being somewhere else WHEN it takes off.
When the sub 0.25u process technology takes off after this TEMPORARY industry stagnation, it will take off with a huge bang and require a huge amount of DUV systems. Every major stepper/supplier will be forced to ramp up their output and require close to 1.2 DUV sources for each stepper/scanner they deliver to their end customers (spares and replacement DUV sources).
CYMI is now capable of doing 1000 units per year, if memory serves me correct. This actually leaves a good deal of customer units they might not be able to service so they could conceivably lose some marketshare to Komatsu or Lamda Physik. However, they will still being running their exisitng factories at full capacity and would win back customers after they expand further and bring up more advanced sources. Therefore, who cares if the lose a little marketshare since they practically own the entire market at this point.
The last thing to consider is that the newer advanced DUV sources will be sold at higher margins than the existing DUV sources they provide. This setback in the industry is hurting CYMI now but they will come back strong if their new sources beome the standard for the systems that will be shipped when the sector recovers.
I will joke with PAtrick over CYMI but we are both exptremely serious about the quality of the company and the huge potential for dramatic returns on our investment.
With all of this said, I have not waved the BULL flag for the semiconductor sector yet. I am picking and choosing some likely profitable trades and sharing them on this thread when I do. I happen to be in total agreement with your TBR comment since it deals with a sector that I also believe is the place to be invested right now, Telecom and telecom affiliated companies.
I have watched TBR and played it a few times. I do not look at it as being conservative like you but rather as a reliable roller coaster that can almost be anticipated for its cycles. This is a very expensive proposition since it is above $100/share but it does pose a reliable 15% possibility if your timing is correct. I also believe that your abilities as an options trader makes this a very good candidate for profits. I would love to follow you in and out of some of the options trades you might make here. I would be glad to follow you lead and advice.
Andrew |
