Don, MSH has gained 35% for the year, compared to about 19% for the SPX...
bigcharts.com
Consider also that we have INTC reporting this Tues, CPQ on Wed., and MSFT on Thursday, all after the close. It might be time for a sentiment check, to see just what is factored in to the prices already. We could start with YHOO. Clearly with consensus at 9›, and whispers at 14› ish, YHOO beat them all with 15›. Was this factored into the price? The stock's action since then says it was.
I could go into detail into what is expected for each of INTC, CPQ, and MSFT, and whether or not those expectations will be met, but I won't. Suffice it to say that the market expects good things, and I believe that this is factored into the price already.
Last few notes:
1) last qtr, MSFT's earnings marked an intermediate-term top, with the SPX dropping dramatically for two days afterwards (Friday and Monday). That was the last time I recall seeing the Globex down well over 10 points in early morning hours.
2) the MSH looks like it has leveled off the last 4 days or so. Thursday was a very nice shooting star, and yesterday's candle was a hanging man. Signs of a top? Yes I think so. I bought 1 Aug MSH 595 put on Friday. Probably too early, but since it's Aug expiry, there's plenty of time to allow the helium to begin leaking from this balloon.
3) One tech stock analyst about a week and a half ago said that the key to the peak of this tech rally will be the 'net stocks. When they crack, the other techs will probably follow. Looks like the 'net stocks, even if they haven't cracked completely, have some dry summer days in front of them. -g-
Cya,
DK |
