ASIA: Demand for rice and other cereals to surge
By Justin Marozzi in Manila
South Asia will experience the strongest demand for rice and other cereals over the next two decades, according to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), the world's leading centre for rice research.
The IRRI, which yesterday launched a new three-year plan to sustain food security and combat poverty and malnutrition in the first quarter of the next century, said demand for rice would be greatest in areas where poverty and malnutrition are pervasive.
Rice represents up to 60 per cent of daily calorie intake in South Asia, IRRI said. Total demand for cereals in Asia will jump 30 per cent by 2010, while per capita availability of water is expected to decline by 40-60 per cent in most of the region's countries.
"It's a formidable challenge," said Robert Havener, IRRI's director-general. "In the next 25 years, the population of planet earth will increase by 2bn. The bulk of that will be in Asia and most of them will be Asian rice consumers. The extent to which we can feed these new mouths depends on our ability to grow more rice largely on existing land."
IRRI said depreciation of regional currencies following the regional financial crisis will lead to rising food prices and erosion of purchasing power among lower income groups.
In Indonesia, for example, food insecurity is already visible, despite 30 years of 3 per cent annual growth in rice yields. "Political sensitivity of increasing food prices may induce Asian governments to be less receptive to trade liberalisation, particularly for staple food items," said the IRRI.
The IRRI plan, which consisted of seven new research programmes and 31 projects, centred on maintaining global food security, improving management of natural resources essential for food production, and conserving the environment.
IRRI said it will work more closely with farmers' groups, non-governmental organisations, national governments' agricultural research programmes and the private sector. Together with its partner countries, IRRI is working on new high-yielding rice varieties it thought would raise yields by 20-30 per cent and be ready within five years.
El Ni¤o, which devastated the farm sectors of several Asian countries, highlighted the difficult trade-offs between the use of water for urban, industrial and agricultural needs. "Clearly, agriculture in Asia will have to be more efficient because it will have less water," said Mr Havener.
The institute also released details of a review of IRRI by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, which praised its scientific achievements.
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