RY,
Can you remember the last time that DELL broke the old all time high and did not make a substantial upside move? Did you remember the last time DELL retreated below the all time high after a consolidation phase?
I was watching the tape last Thursday and Friday and thought that the best chance for the bears to put a lid on the share price was gone. Certainly there was huge fight on Thursday to push the issue below 99 after it marched toward 101 5/8, and on Friday, the battle between 98-99 was hilarious. However, I firmly believe that the days for DELL to close in double digits are gone unless another split takes place.
Actually on Friday, MSFT experienced a similar battle at 102 which lasted about 40 minutes. And CPQ also had a fierce battle at 32, which generated about 1 million share sell orders.
Anyway, this week we will see INTC, CPQ, SUNW, and MSFT earnings report. Right now, we are sure that MSFT will beat first call (which will be followed by profit taking). SUNW is set to meet first call, but that has nothing to do with DELL share prices. INTC report will probably set a tone for market for the early weeks. The street was not expecting CPQ to do anything this Q and any upside surprise will be taken as positive. IBM reports the following MOnday.
I think that we have a fat chance of hitting 104-105 by Friday, then retreats the following Monday when profit taking hits both MSFT and DELL. DElL probably will temporarily retreat toward 100, and consolidate, and shoot toward 110. Expect 130-135 before they announce the earnings, then a sharp sell off follows (can you say a 15-20 point drop?).
Also, MSFT will hit 120 by the close of Friday and came back to 110 in two weeks.
good luck,
larry! |
