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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2086)7/12/1998 9:01:00 AM
From: Joe Dancy  Read Replies (2) of 2754
 
Awesome investment philosophy and analysis Don. I'm still a buy and hold guy and always will be due to tax and transaction cost inefficiencies that harm your total return - plus the fact that I'm convinced it is very difficult to time markets, the experts are no better than us.

I will say this though - holding a company in this sector means that you should think seriously about adding when things are cheap (like now) and reducing when things get fairly or overvalued. I do that with all of my holdings to some extent, but from your tables it is critical to maximize returns. While no-one can time accurately I'm convinced, once you've held a stock for a while you know when it is more fully valued or when it is being given away.

Your note that "FSII and PLAB have essentially equivalent growth rates of 30 and 31 percent respectively (using yesterday's closing prices) over the 8 years starting in the fall of 1990" is a real interesting take - especially after PLAB's fall last week. Based on valuations only I've been adding MASK (competitor) the last year or so instead of PLAB so did not get whipsawed this time anyway.

I got my Individual Investor magazine and noticed they note Adflex "shares have plummeted, and if you haven't already bailed, sell now." I guess they abide by the theory buy high, sell low. Geez, I think now would be a good time to add to any position there. I'm not an shareholder and have not taken that bait yet. Like you say there are a hundred ways to make money in the market, just find one you are comfortable with that apparently works.

Joe
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