Dwight,
With all that you are saying - I am in agreement, but the problem is this helium market.
Im not calling this a helium market just because I feel the fundamentals, and even in light of the great interest rates, etc. It moving in a very unpredicable manner. There are times that the market has a good rate of predicability and other times like now, that it is just so hard to forcast, even for the very short-term.
I have all sorts of downward reversal signals: BERISH HARAMIS, SHOOTING STARS, HANGING MAN, DECLINING ADVANCE/DELINE, DECLINING VIX, BEARISH DIVERGENCES, ETC,ETC, ETC. The OEX for the last week or so has had numerous candlestick reversal signal and Friday was a BEARISH HARAMI, but will the market pullback - who knows.
I do feel a top formation now, but since I am an option player Im looking for, as many here for that 1-3 day move, before JULY expiration.
I have decided to play the coming week with a strangle/straddle on the OEX hoping that it not stay flat. On a 3-4 point move in either direction on the OEX it would produce a breakeven situation and for the last 13 trading days the OEX has moved an average of 6.4 points between the high and low intraday. With the time value coming off substantially this week it may make this type of play slightly better.
I may even just do it intraday, on any 3-5 point swing I just close out of the profitable leg and hope it goes in the other direction and if it does - thats great, and if it does not I break even.
Seeya |
