Betty ,
I see that same flag although I suspect it's morphing into a distorted pennant, unless the Japanese election throws us for a loop tomorrow..
My question about volume was somewhat tongue in cheek.Don seemed to imply that one can make a facile correlation between volume and price action, RMBS has spiked on high volume and drifted down on low vol, therefore we are now at the beginning of a new downleg.You tell me that the selling has dried up, but so has the buying, so I think the only thing that can be said with confidence is that activity has diminished.I happen to agree with you in this case and think that the selling is nonchalant, the low on Wed was on low vol so there is clearly no abundance of sellers, but these things change quickly.
A couple of things strike me about the chart. First is that RMBS explodes to the upside, but drifts on the downside, which suggests that one should be concerned about being left behind on the upmoves and can be more relaxed about selling.The second thing, which is really a function of the first, is that these explosions are accompanied by big jumps in volume and are almost always overdone, the spike day often ending with meaningful upper shadows,ie 6/23, 7/08. My guess is that this is caused by a combo of news driven sideline buying and consequent short covering, more buying etc.The weekly chart looks particularly good, this week producing a very nice hammer bottom, although resistence in the 62-64 is clearly significant.
I just want to add that I have limited chartreading experience and don't consider myself a chartist.RMBS didn't pop up on some sort of black box stock screen which I run on the entire mkt.I had been following the stock since the IPO and was waiting like many others for a change in mkt sentiment which IMO took place a couple of weeks ago.I missed the first big upday so I only managed to get in on the open on 6/23 at 50, so the question of whether support holds at these levels is of more than academic interest to me. I don't like watching my hard earned dollars go down the drain.I think one needs guideposts to judge the behavior of a stock other than "I like RMBS, Intel likes RMBS, I think I'll buy and hold the stock". Value is not of much help here either.I'm engaging Musya in this dialoge about the "weather" because he seems ready and willing to offer up his thoughts and I'm hoping to glean something about what a "technician" might be thinking.If you all are finding it a bore, just let me know.
Anyone have the conference call #?
dave |
