Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: JZGalt who wrote (25551)	7/12/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Anyone following Triton Energy / OIL - intriguing Options play... An intriguing and potentially an extremely profitable scenario is playing out concerning their options. They have been working with investment bankers and have been accepting sealed bids for the sale of the company. They are in an acknowledged ''quiet'' period and ''rumours'' are that they are in a weekend board meeting; irregardless at the least they have a scheduled board meeting wednesday; a sale announcement is probably immenient. With the potential announcement so close to an options expiration date - with 20,000 open July $35 & $40 calls alone - there is a couple of million $ in calls ready to expire worthless if an announcement drags past friday. Because of the volume - it appears the smart/big money is heavilly weighted to expecting an announcement this week. The calls at $35 - $40 represent a quick 2 to 5 times ones money returned on a $40-$45 sale price which seems to be a fair and conservative price valuation. My question (to anyone) is 2 fold - if you follow Triton - do you have a valuation number and if not; do you have any opinion on what is likely to transpire as far as when the company will announce when it is right at an options expiration date ? July's options expire friday; the price difference between the July and August calls is substantial ie: July $40 calls @ 3/4 ($75) versus the Aug $40 @ $2 7/8 ($287.50) - one can own 38 July calls for the same price of 10 Aug calls. OIL is selling @ $35 1/8 and speculation places a sale at $42 to $45 a share which is reasonable. The conservative play is obviously the August calls if one is confident on the sale; but the price differential to the June calls is substantial.... any opinion ? Not a bad simple common stock buy here either; at a $42-$45 sale price is a quick 15-25% return... PS - with the news from Japan and with the probable heavy shorting of the YEN; we should see Oil down substantially and the shorts should have a field day in the oil patch...not looking good for monday ! Any strategies people ? (short of dumping ones entire Oil portfolio) - Hard to short enough to cover if one's margined (at these great buying levels - at least I thought so...) - short the OSX ? I'm expecting a 3-4% down day monday. I'm still strongly bullish; but I'm tired of these 2-4% 1-day hits and I do not have the time to day trade or go in and out of my portfolio in a day... (commission cost as well - off set the benefit) - just trying to avoid another hit...

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