My bet is MSFT's revenues will grow much faster in the next five years due to :
1) The revenues of WIN98 will be reflected on the earnings starting from next quarter.
2) Many consumers hold the buying of PCs due to the release of Win98. Now WIN98 is in the market, and people will start buying again.
3) Intel is to release new products, each time when INTEL release new products,
MSFT's stock price always grew faster, just reviewing the stock price of MSFT
in 1996, 1997, 1998, then you will know. It may not benefit INTEL due to the competition from AMD, but it will definitely benefit MSFT.
4) Starting in the second quarter of 1999, NT5 will be released, it will help push
the revenues and stock price of MSFT well into the 2000s.
5) In the second half of the year, it is generally the hot season of PC business due to
Christmas and new year shopping season.
6) Asia will start recover from it worst economical crisis in the second half of 1998.
The worst for Asia has passed, and it will get better and better. And people actually start to predict that Hong Kong will recover at the end of 1998. So, Asian will start to buy computers again .
7) The DOJ case is no big deal , as long as MSFT 's revenue and profit continues to grow. If the DOJ case is really a big deal, MSFT will not pop from $85 to $113 in
such a short time. Besides, WIN98 is not the only product for MSFT to generate revenues.
Whether MSFT will hit $150 at the end of 1998 or even as early as Oct. of 1998 is
everyone's guess, however , it you take the above factors into consideration, I would say the chance is high !!!! |
