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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: kolo55 who wrote (3336)7/12/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: MGV  Read Replies (1) of 27311
 
Although I don't agree with a number of the conclusions you draw based on available information in annual and quarterly reports and public statements by company officials (public verbal disclosures at a CC are subject to the same legal disclosure requirements as written ones - that said, verbal representations can be inherently more difficult in which to pin down an interpretation), yours at least is the first response that makes a good faith effort to respond to some key issues. You mentioned FMK. A number of his posts are suspect for being based on non-public sources and for proving to be wrong after the fact. Whether he has been duplicitous or reckless it is difficult to determine over the internet but, both are wrong and at the very least his posts have been reckless.

Some of the substantive points I don't agree with:

First, you taint an otherwise overall good effort to explain your analysis by summarily hanging anyone who doesn't agree with your conclusion as being guilty of "superficial analysis." What is that?

Second, I don't agree with your price estimates. I know that lithium ion batteries for digital video cameras with MSRP of $80 sell for $50 to $60 in retail markets. Wholesale prices available to the manufacturer must be considerably less.

Third, your projections regarding line productivity and capacity aren't persuasive. What is your source of information? If its in the 10K or part of a publicly verifiable source you would do a great service by disclosing the source to others. If the source is not part of publicly verifiable information, how can you reasonably expect people to accept it as probable.

Fourth, 80 to 90% probability for mass production by September must be taken as being shot from the hip in the absence of an analytical framework for evaluating probability.

Paul, to the extent you sought to discuss the merits of the company, I appreciate your discussion and the time it took to post it.

Most of your points are ones on which reasonable men can differ. Your reasonable side must have come from CMU (smile).
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