I would prefer this forum, yahoo is very amateurish. I'll send these guys some money when my free period is up.
I am an insurance agent(multi-line) and represent a local cemetery for pre need planning. I may sell my agency soon and do the pre need to provide income and something to do. It is tough starting out, but it is rewarding when you are able to "connect" with people and start a plan.
I have been trading stocks for three years now and would have to say that it is basically a loser's game. I have tons of business backround and accounting degrees and such, but it still boils down to timing, patience, discipline and luck. Most of the profits I have made have been wasted going for the big kill. One thing I have learned through all of this. THE most important thing of all is earnings and the prospects of future growth in earnings. The deathcare industry is recession proof, asia proof, and obsolescence proof. It is as predictable as Coca Cola. I made a big bet on lwn, the dog of the industry and have done ok, but I do not own any at this time. They are growing too fast, out of control, and do not have management to handle the growth. Srv, equ, and stei are accumulates for me on weakness.
Now to pdsf. I think the real money is in the indian casinos and riverboats. This is where the old refurbished machines will go and produce the biggest margins. What else are you going to do in the winter in Colorado or Minnesota except park yourself in front of a slot machine. My wife and I go to an indian casino here in Ca. and every machine is occupied all day long. These machines come from lease returns and purchases on the market. The highest margins will be on these leases as the depreciation is pretty much already accounted for. You mentioned cash flow. The key here is EBITD.
The D in the anagram is for Depreciation. Depreciation is a non cash
expense which effectively lowers net income but does not require cash.(such as a phone expense or commission or such). As the machines become fully depreciated, their book value is basically salvage value. Then the machines are released or sold for huge gains. All of this will help the bottom line in the years to come.
You didn't say anything about the warrants, what do you think? Do you own any?
In closing, earnings per share is what drives a stock up in price. Pdsf will double last years earnings this year. They will probably have to issue more stock or borrow more to get the money to increase earnings in 99. That might put a stall in the stock price, but if
Johan puts the money to work creating more earnings, then we will all do quite well. |
