Triton Energy / OIL; the intrigue continues...
Buyout imminent...in quiet period....20,000 calls expire in 4 days....someone makes/loses $Millions if the calls expire worthless...stock down $2.....common appears to be the play or Aug calls....speculative to say the least....sure beats ''death by 1000 cuts''...some serious sweating going on !
Bought CDG, EVI & OIL ...I may need a psychiatrist; I will continue to average down at 10-15% drops in EVI, CDG & perhaps FGII; MDCO ,VRC , DO looking ohhhh so cheap. Where is the DAMN bottom ?
I'm not ''gambling'' - per se; I just beleive after PKD's conference call & Rowan's numbers that these earnings/utilizations (other than land drillers) do NOT support these price levels - a mathematical valuation anomally. Fundamentally, E&P companies are not, will not & can not stop replacing reserves....for instance in the seismic area - major oils must contract & do these large surveys 2-3 + years in advance of when they expect production ! Many of today's seismic surveys are for anticipated production (if successfull) 2-3 years down the road...
At least my next averaging down levels will be into all most unbelieveable levels - another 20% takes CDG to the teens and EVI to the mid $20's & FGII to the teens --- at these levels Warren Buffet may own some drilling or service companies....if the man likes commodities like silver; how can he ignore Oil; appears to be a natural for him - some of the energy companies can be bought for their reserve values like the XTO CEO is buying & the Triton sale etc...
I am leveraging and going deep; I neither expect or would advise anyone else to do so... I see a historic opportunity; again a direct screaming parallel to the Bank stock crash of 1991 as James Cramer talked about recently. Fortunes are made by buying at the bottom not with the mo-mo boys... I can afford to risk at my age; and I'm burning all bridges behind me and not feeling too nervous about it ! It would be different if Jack Up rates were $15-18,ooo etc. people wake up; we have a classic out of favor, bad news, ''wouldn't touch the sector with a 10 foot pole'' mentality working here. I admit it may be Q1-2 1999 before we see a rebound and yes; those 3-4% down days make you wonder where the bottom is; but if I can buy FGII @ $19, CDG in the teens and EVI in the mid $20's --- I see no risk in that I can comfortably & patiently wait.... if anyone has a long term perspective - how can this sector not be one of the classic undervalued sector buys in a decade ! At these prices; it's simply a question of ''guts''... that's why there aren't thousands of people talking about the fortunes they made in the bank stocks in 1991... it goes against human nature to venture into the face of ''death by 1000 cuts''... that's why there are so few Warren Buffets. Not that I'm a Warren Buffet, if I'm wrong I still have a good 401K conservatively invested, a good income, and I still save money every month... if I'm right (being strongly leveraged) I will be able to tell the grandchildren some day about this ''Oil bidness'' ...back in 1998... I'm not turning back nor will I be shaken out. After all what's the downside -- realistically; I may have to hold EVI, CDG, FGII for 2-3 years - does anyone really think they will not ultimately rebound to a point where they will not return 11-12% (35%+) within 3 years !!!!!????? Do you guys (bears) REALLY think that CDG, EVI or FGII can not or will not retrace ro the April,May price levels within 3 years ?!!!??? - I see a 10-12% annual return over the next 3 years as my maximum downside ! With being totally margined on these average downs - I'm looking at some pretty dramatic numbers return-wise WHEN this rebounds...at 8% +/- margin interest is a bargain; hell EVI can move 8 % in a damn day !
I am NOT trying to influence anyone; but for someone who may have 20-25 years untill retirement - this is a historic opportunity ! Damn the Yen, damn the Asian contagion, damn the short sellers, damn $12 oil ....sometimes you just have to put it all on the line - I have.
I was tempted to begin to trade in & out or to even do some shorting off of bad news like we just got in Japan; too complex, too costly, too risky - I'm buying on dips and holding long term ... just that simple.
...and we had better be having that ''Rig Party'' ! |
