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Biotech / Medical : IMNR - Immune Response
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To: Manny Gugliuzza who wrote (928)7/13/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: ahhaha   of 1510
 
Wire soon to be cable. Can't trust satellite like I discovered years ago. I find I'm looking at the readout less and less. When I was a money manager, I was involved with an institutional firm that did a similar data processing. I didn't like their model because it leaned on moving averages of raw data. It always assumed a causal connection between today's and yesterday's price. Through extensive experience which supports the academic claim, I don't believe that is true. My approach only attempts to assess the instantaneous state such that an on-balance favorable regime is possible during which one has the odds slightly in one's favor. The state collapses so over extended periods the expected return is negative and further parameter readings won't support a time series correlation between state and price. This is consistent with the strong Random Walk Theory. But when you get on a Theory of Runs roll, you really roll. Say run 1G to 100Gs in six months. Now, I'd rather spend time interacting on the net than making money or watching tv. It's far more entertaining.

IMNR is a workout situation. I don't expect any ENMD run-ups. I prefer that doesn't happen because it is gross speculation that forces you to sell. As Livermore's Old Turkey would say, "I hate to lose my position, it's a bull market, you know". You end up making less and then you have the problem of finding the next dog.
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