Herschel, Unfortunately, I believe that you are being too optimistic. (I would like to agree with you, as I am long in CRPB and several other semi-equip and semiconductor stocks).
My reasoning regarding this pessimism was reinforced recently when another of my stocks, Photronics (PLAB) preannounced bad news. PLAB makes photomasks, which are required whenever a new chip design is introduced. Thus, their profitability does NOT depend on how many chips of a particular design are produced, but only on the introduction of new designs. I had reasoned that, as the technology revolution was continuing, new chip designs would be introduced at a rapid pace, and PLAB would do well. Now it appears that the downturn in the semi industry is so severe that the pace of new designs is slowing. This is not at all auspicious for the future. The only question in my mind remains whether to sell now at a (large) loss or to have blind faith in the future....... Eventually an upturn will come, but when? Will we have to wait out a global depression in the meantime?
Good luck,
Len |
