Dear John,
Thread participants don't really have the sustained buying power to counteract shorts, investors made nervous by rumors, and investors who are tired of waiting for PARS to run in the face of EGRP up today 10 points, EGGS up from 7 to 29 in a couple of weeks -- all that Internet-related stuff can make it hard to focus on this stock even though the likelihood of a double or triple within 18 months seems pretty good.
The feedback I'm getting from folks in Israel who talk to the company, from my own contact with the company, from the breadth of articles I find now on the Internet related to a swell of enthusiasm by medical researchers and the public alike for marijuana-derived drugs (even, as HU-211 is, the non-psychotropic kind) tells me it's worth being patient for this stock. Even if a repeat of the pullback prior to the FDA approvals happens again and we slide perilously close to $2/share or, momentarily, under $2.
Look at a one-year chart for PARS. quote.yahoo.com
The stock went up last fall on good volume. Then, as people waited for the FDA approvals, continual attrition at relatively low trading volumes. Same thing as now. On big volume we made it up past 3, and now, by attrition, we fall back. Rumors are presented as fact -- on Yahoo this week people speculate that because certain posters are not posting, it must be bad. A sloping price must mean Alrex and Lotemax aren't selling. A sloping price must mean the HU-211 trials were poorly conceived and are not sufficiently large to end up with a meaningful answer. Today someone says that "all pharms are being touted" so if PARS is going down, that must prove bad news is on the way.
Of course, these rumors were probably bandied about over the winter and the people who fell for them got out and missed the ride back up.
In fact, it always pays to put rumors under the microscope. If you chart PARS, TEVIY, and BTGC -- 3 Israeli biotech/pharms, you'll see PARS is not so out of step as some would like us to believe:
exchange2000.com
Biotechs need good announcements to move up. Right now we don't have any. That does not, by default, mean we have bad news -- simply the absence of news. News is expected in the early fall. I'm holding onto my shares till then -- short activity notwithstanding -- and will look for buy-in points between now and then.
Good luck to you and all the other longs in PARS.
Ariella |
