John G.,
No invective intended. Without a breakdown of each product segment of AMAT, however, their CMP numbers will remain a mystery to Wall Street. This is the advantage of being a supplier of a various differing products, one of which (CMP), is a non-material percentage to date of their overall EPS. Marketshare means little if you make margins of 5%....its the bacon Wall Street wants to see.
Furthermore, if you are going to quote Carl Johnson re AMAT, at least quote his posting accurately:
"Shipments in Q1 ranged between $45 and $50 million. In Q2,
shipments were approximately $46 million. Bookings in Q2 were
$75 to $80 million. Apparently they are taking share from IPEC
and Strasbaugh - not SpeedFam."
(quoting from paragraph 3 of Carl Johnson's posting found at exchange2000.com.
Even with the above said, I don't think a "one quarter" analysis tells the real story. Moreover, you must also examine backlog. AMAT is a very fierce competitor in all their product segments and I also own shares of AMAT, though substantially fewer than SFAM. Having said, IMHO, the lights will not be going out anytime soon at SFAM if you examine their cash and burn rate. Nonetheless, believe what you choose.
By the way, did you trade your shares of SFAM for AMAT?
If you wish to discuss this further, send me a private message so we don't take up thread space.
Good luck to you and your investments....SemiBull |
