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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (356)	7/14/1998 3:06:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Robert, Here is a series of excellant links offered on the Asia Forum Collected by Joe Dancy...that thread does a great job of posting link information. #reply-5176714 Trade with Asia represents 45% of Japans economic trade engine. Dollar and Euro denominated trade will help certain sectors of their economy, ie: Auto, electronics, etc. But this alone will not allow Japan to export itself out of recessionary pressures and bring down the dollar. From my reading I get the impression the structural problems both economic and financial are so vast and complex....that nobody realy understands what exactly can be done to alter the course that has been set. [You might as well say throughout Asia] To this we can add the political "nonsense". If Japan does not deal with the restructuring of bank debts, create firewalls between its' financial structures and allow more open and independent regulation....they may find it increasingly harder to get international financing on the open market....If so....we will see a new chapter in world depressions, by adding Japan. They've got about 4-6 months to pull some meaningful rabbits from their back pockets or we all may face more serious problems. I think you have to add this third element to your list. I am not a gold bug or a depression bear......but this prospect has to be considered when looking at Japan. The loggers in Maine and the northwest use to ride the rivers by walking the logs....breaking up log jambs as they went along. Sometimes the log they were on would get spinng under their feet...they would have to do some fancy footwork to maintain balance and stay out of the dangerous water. This image works well in when thinking about Japan. Those early spring waters are very cold.

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