Listed below is an update of Viagra specification based on published IMS Internet posts and a CNBC news report (7/12/98). Note: actual #s for the week of 7/03/98 may be slightly off.
Highlights are are follows:
-Since its launch 13 weeks ago, total Viagra prescriptions have reached almost 2.9 million .This is the highest specification ever achieved for a new product in the history of Big Pharma.
-Despite the shortened work week due to the celebration of Independence Day on July 3rd, Viagra Total Rxs for the week ending July 3rd remained flat (-1.3%) as compared to the prior week.
-Viagra weekly New Rxs continue to fall from the record level of May 8, 1998 (278,715). This decline reflects the unprecedented patient demand at launch and concerns about Viagra's adverse reactions and drug interactions.
-Indicative of its therapeutic success and future repeat business, Viagra Refill Rxs once again showed very strong growth (+13.0%), the 12th consecutive weekly increase in refills.
-The important Viagra Refill/New Rx ratio has moved up to a very healthy 66.3%.
-The average number of Viagra tablets per Rx is 8.5.
Note: The Memorial Day holiday had a negative impact on the 5/29/98 data.
The Independence Day holiday had a negative impact on the 7/03/98 data.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Viagra New RXs
....................................% Growth....% Share.......
......Week....Viagra........Prior.......... Viagra.........
..... Ending...New Rxs....Week.....New Rxs......
14..7/03/98....129,108.....-9.0%...........98.3%...Holiday
13..6/26/98....141,877.....-6.5%...........98.5%..
12..6/19/98....151,579.....-10.0%...........98.6%..
11..6/12/98....168,610.....-12.4%...........98.7%...
10..6/05/98....192,585.... +19.3%...........99.0%....
9....5/29/98....161,405.....-31.8%..........98.7%...Holiday
8....5/22/98.....236,525.....-9.9%............99.0%....
7....5/15/98.....262,566.....-5.8%............99.1%.....
6....5/8/98.......278,715.....+3.3%.............99.1%....
5.....5/1/98......269,842.....+29.8%........ 98.9%.....
4.....4/24/98.....207,868 ...+83.7%........ 98.3%......
3.....4/17/98.....113,134....+212.0%....... 96.1%.......
2....4/10/98 ......36,263... . ++................84.4%......
1....4/3/98............ 546... ++..................6.4%........
0....3/27/98...... ...... 0... ++ .................0.0%.......
Total .............2,350,813...
Avg Weekly ......180,790.........................98..2%
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Viagra Refill RXs
.....................................% Growth.....% Share.....
......Week...Viagra.............Prior...........Viagra........
......Ending..Refill Rxs.........Week......Refill Rxs...
14..7/03/98...85,595.............+13.0%........97.0%.. Holiday
13..6/26/98...75,748.............+11.9%........96.8%..
12..6/19/98...68,689..............+4.5%.........96.5%...
11..6/12/98...64,781...............+2.3%.........96.1%.....
10..6/05/98....63,323.............+28.0%.........95.8%......
9....5/29/98....49,452.............+7.6%..........94.8%.....Holiday
8....5/22/98....45,972..............+31.0%.........93.8%........
7....5/15/98....35,100..............+42.1%.........91.9%........
6....5/8/98......24,700...............+50.3%........88.3%.......
5....5/1/98.......16,429............. +118.8%.......81.8%.........
4....4/24/98.......7,508..............+256.0%.......66.3%.........
3....4/17/98.......2,109..............+391.6%......33.0%.........
2....4/10/98 .........429...................++......... 8.4%...........
1....4/3/98...............0...................++...........0.0%..........
0....3/27/98.............0....................++..........0.0%.....
Total.................538.835. ...........................92.6%..
Average Weekly..41,449..............
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Viagra Total Rxs
..............................................% Growth..% Share....
......Week................Viagra.........Prior.........Viagra.......
..... Ending...............Total Rxs....Week....Total Rxs....
14..7/03/98..............214,703......-1.3%..............97.8%...Holiday
13..6/26/98..............217,625......-0.8%..............97.9%..
12..6/19/98..............219,458......-6.0%..............97.9%.....
11..6/12/98..............233,391......-8.8%..............98.0%....
10..6/05/98..............255,908......+21.4%...........98.2%....
9....5/29/98..............210,857......-23.4%........... 97.8%..Holiday
8....5/22/98 ............ 282,497......-5.1%............ 98.1%....
7....5/15/98............. 297,666......-1.9%............. 98.2%..
6....5/8/98............... 303,415......+6.0%............. 98.1%..
5....5/1/98............... 286,271......+32.9%........... 97.7%..
4....4/24/98............. 215,376......+86.9%............ 96.7%..
3....4/17/98............. 115,243....+214.1%.............92.8%...
2....4/10/98 ..............36,692.....+6,620.1%..........76.3%...
1....4/3/98.......................546...........++..............4.0%.....
0....3/27/98 .............. .........0...........++............ 0.0%...
Total......................2,889,648
.....Average Weekly..222,239.............................97.1%...
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ED Ratio: Refill Rxs/New Rxs
........................Viagra........
..... Week.........% refills/....
.... Ending........New Rxs...
14..7/03/98...........66.3%.....Holiday
13..6/26/98...........53.4%....
12..6/19/98...........45.3%....
11..6/12/98...........38.4%.....
10..6/05/98...........32.9%.....
9....5/29/98............30.6%...Holiday.
8....5/22/98............19.4%....
7....5/15/98 ...........13.1%....
6....5/8/98................8.9%....
5....5/1/98................6.1%...
4....4/24/98..............3.6%....
3....4/17/98 .............1.9%.....
2....4/10/98 .............1.2%..
1....4/3/98 ............. 0.0%....
0....3/27/98............ .........
.....Avg Post Viagra......22.9%...
.
Notes
-New Rxs: The key to the health of a new product. Look for volume, market share and growth trends. Viagra new Rxs are expected to plateau and decline due to heavy initial trial usage. Holidays will effect weekly totals.
-Refill Rxs: An important indicator of the efficacy and toleration of a new product particularly one for prn therapy such as ED. These patients will not refill a product that is not working or is causing adverse reactions.
According to IMS, ''a key barometer to measure the market demand and acceptance of Viagra will be the refill rate of prescriptions. It provides insight into how consumers like the results and how they are reacting to news about the product. The time it takes a consumer to decide to get a refill will have a major impact on the ultimate sales of Viagra.''
-Refill/New Rx Ratio: Another indicator of a product's success. After an initial launch period of 4-6 months, a successful new product should have a refill ratio of at least 50%. Conversely, a product with a refill ratio of less than 50% after 4-6 months may not have been viewed as effective, well-tolerated, or available.
In addition, a ratio of greater than 110% may result from a sharp decline in new specification due to alternative new therapies ....while the remaining satisfied patients continue to refill their Rxs. If this ratio is significantly higher than historical norms, the product may be in trouble.
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