Little quick to be giving up on the stock, don't you think? This is, after all, a well-acknowledged downturn for the industry.
Personally, my sell signal will be if oil/OCTG recovers and Mavk doesn't recover with it. However, I have trouble selling just because the hard times are harder than people thought. After all, most pundits I saw did not predict the depth and length of this oil mini-depression.
As for averaging down, there are strong opinions both ways. In my book, it all comes down to investing new capital. If the best stock happens to be one that you have already invested in, even if it was a higher price, so be it. As long as you don't start putting more than 10% or so in any one stock, you're probably OK.
As for Mavk, I'm encouraged by the fact that NSS did worse for the period. It indicates that MAVK is doing well relatively, and we are still just waiting for the industry to rebound. Whether that will be in 6 months, 12, or 18 is a big macro-economic guess at this point.
So, for now I am holding, although I recognize that there will be more short term weakness.
If anyone has new estimates and numbers for Q4 and 1999 from the company or analysts, let me know. It scares me that one analyst picked this quarter dead on - anyone have the details on that analyst's other estimates?
- Adam |
