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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18923)	7/15/1998 4:55:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 50167

My Global alert-- One of my previous posts when I discussed my global indicators I talked about major resistance's which were proving to be unbreakable for my global indexes. Russia-- I was expecting that 271 may not be taken out within 3 days of a package we are at 380 today- I think Russia turnaround was good a will be helpful for Europe. China- remains weaker but exports has seen a phenomenal turnaround according to a report I have seen today this should probably on its way up soon. Although we have this from the experts on prognosis of ASEA. pathfinder.com HSI-- My resistance I was worried about has today been nearly taken out it is 8477 and we are trading at 8460 this is a important level. Singapore-- The resistance 1194 we are trading still well below at 1055. UK- 6104- this will be a weak day the numbers today showed increase in earnings raising fears of a interest rate hike next meeting of BOE. Market will back off from here as result, sterling will go higher and may see 3.05 against mark. This is a nervous time the interest rate hike can be as high as .5%. UK has still been unable to find that freedom from problems of inflation- US does not have the kind of structural problems which UK has the CPI and PPI numbers were good although UK being same in the same cycle we see always this inflation problems associated with UK much more severely then US. If this Anglo-Saxon economic cycle has some extension we may draw conclusions that although we have no signs of any apparent inflationary pressures we may see some creeping up in service sector. One point one can raise against this argument is that US has seen unemployment as low as 4.3% and now rising back up to 4.5% but one needs to worry about any lagging income rise affect. We are seeing it in UK. France and Germany- The stock markets and income forecasts in Europe remains robust. With USSR temporarily out of the woods we may see a renewed interest in the markets. France is at 4361 and we may see it approaching 4500 by end of summer. Germany will be the main benefactor from this USSR deal. Italy has taken out 25342 as has Australia since my last recommendation these markets have come long way up. Australia 2729 is now taken out we are at 2773- Now what does all these signals means to me whenever we have these global signals breaking resistance's we have seen DJIA making new highs-- we have reached our target of 9212 and another close above this 9245 would mean that we are in a break out here but I think we need a solid break here I expect that to happen. the earnings are far better than expectations and that has been our slogan all along as we maintain out longish positions the motto was 'strong economy means strong earnings' I think if any thing else two things that takes this market higher is earning revisions. In my opinion it is not that market is awarding companies beating lowered expectations I think market has not really figured out why all these price slashing has not mortally wounded INTC and SEG-- were these companies not expected to show much worst-- it is the volume increase I think which is not being factored in. CPQ was running a three month inventory all that has been wiped clean the falling prices of components are leaving better margins for the box makers bringing more new buyers, the culture of three computers is taking off and last but not least we have component makers who are making their operations leaner. I think we will see some buying in DDX IIX AOL-one of my stocks we talked about at 23 last January EMC has yesterday made new high-this recommendation picked up luckily the bottom- calls bought for 31/4 are now worth nearly 20$'s. I think we should look and find some turnarounds which are bound to happen these are best situations to make money.All this may help the Tech's(semis) the laggard in present move up to 8244-- but any recommendation has to contain a look at supports my opinion is 8010 becomes an important support on SPX 1118 is the most important support and composite 1921--NASDAQ Banking stocks are giving me a explosive buy signal if 2180 is taken out and we close above it. BI for now

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