O/T DiamondH....point well taken...
However; ...''taint no 2 day rally !'' --- Bank on it !
...''been wrong the past 2 months'' .... hey, only time will tell. If I'm guilty of anything, it is ignoring all the Voodoo, Hocus- Pocus, ninja flying hammer, double carrot-top, psychobabble TA & media hype, Doom & Gloom manipulated hyperbole !
Yes; I have steadilly bought into the face of ''death by 1000 cuts''. As I stated many times: this hop in and out, market timing -don't try to catch a falling knife - just wait till it bottoms stuff is fine for the less than 1/2 of 1% of ''traders'' who ever beat the market or an average mutual fund. How many articles, studies or statistics do people need to read that prove; less than 1/2 of 1% of market timers or active traders EVER beat a simple buy and hold strategy, period. Anyone just look at the Oil sector siince the first of the year -- tell me once again with a straight face how many people exited the Dec. crash just in time, only to buy back in after the Jan. lows and then jumped back out on the whipsaw that March's selloff to new lows brought, and then off no positive news just happened to get back in in late March and rode the driller train through April & May and got off at the ''June'' bustop to miss that selloff and most importantly off the negative crude news,and into the face of death by 1000 cuts; magically timed their reentry on this past ''black'' Monday's selloff.... - get the point ?
You would have to be clairvoyant to have timed this market ! However; if you used fundamental analysis and ''looked at the numbers, stupid'' - you just might have bought in Jan. or more reasonably in March after the dramatic selloff; as I did. Buying on these quick 20%+ selloffs when the fundamental earnings, sales revenue, backlogs, PE valuations, historic crude price levels etc. don't support these price levels; is just plain old simple value investing & bottom fishing. Again, yes I am guilty of cheerleading this sector all through this recent selloff. Yes it sold off even while I was cheering it on ! -- but, you critics just don't get it do you ! Yes I bought FGII on the way down @ $32, then again at $26, all the while saying value and fundamentals were here; yes FGII & the sector sold off some more...and I bought again @ $24 and now my stupidity has me at a damn cost basis of a little under $26 1/4 -- what a foolish,cheerleading, inexperienced, permabull -moron I am; owning FGII @ $26, FLC @ $21 + and I really blew it & loaded up big time, more than doubling down on CDG & EVI on Monday - damn, now own them for a cost basis of about $28 on CDG & $35 on EVI...what a patsy I am huh; damn I could have taken the advice of all the market timing -trading geniuses and waited untill we really hit the bottom or untill the momentum is clearly established, or untill all the earnings #'s come out, or untill the analyst upgrade the sector, or untill crude reaches $18 and then; I could be a real trader & a real market timer, then I could be buying CDG @ $48 after it had clearly recovered and gained momentum or EVI @ $50, FGII @ $38 etc. ....hey, remember these traders are saying buying today would be like trying to catch a ''falling knife'' - '' It's just a ''dead cat bounce''... watch out, no bottom in sight....hell; when do these guys ever get on ?...obviously after the train has left the station as it did yesterday !
I'm not saying I'm the smartest guy in the world or the most experienced or a great trader - I'm not; ....at least the great trader part anyway... is yet to be determined.
My point is simple. We too often listen to all the gloom and doom, media hype, fall prey to the human emotions of fear and the ''follow the pack'' mentality. When we see stocks sell off as a commodity proxy to Oil and we are at a historic low level for crude - a value investing bell had better sound ! When the media screams ''the sky is falling '' and the ''end of the world -in the 'patch is near'' - a bell ought to sound... When James Cramer ( allthough I love the guy) says - drillers are not fit for the dog to eat...it's time to buy drillers! When Parker Drilling on their conference call says ''there is NO freefall in Jack Up rates'' and drillers selloff on news of the ''end'' of the Jack Up market like CDG & MDCOdid; it's time to be buying CDG & MDCO. When drillers like FLC go through prior 52 week lows and yet off of ''downward revised'' worst case scenario earnings revisions are selling at a PE of less than 8 times 1999's new downward revised earnings & have 50% EPS growth going into next year with all those longterm contracted deepwater newbuilds coming online - it's time to buy FLC.. When Halter Marine has a backlog greater than last years entire sales volume (my God !) and is selling off - it's time to buy ! ....''IT'S THE NUMBERS, STUPID'' ....don't buy into the spin doctoring, hedge fund/Big money traders Bear runs like on Monday as a point to abandon ship - it's a damn buying opportunity !
PS....yes I'm still holding TCMS @ $9-11 ...my point is you can't average down on everything; but as ''the Man'' Cramer (why do you guys hate this guy? - guts, savvy and genius - jealous ?) said in a great article on what to do in a major selloff:
Review your portfolio and the individual sub-sectors and individual stocks with in it. Sell off the laggards (for me; land drillers or TCMS for example) and average down only into your very best core long term holds that have strong mathematical fundamentals. I did; choosing EVI, CDG,FLC, FGII ...hey, only time will tell...
Good Luck market timers...trying to catch a departing train is a lot harder and more dangerous than trying to catch a falling knife...
Peace
Slider...........LONGGGGGGGGGGGG on the 'Patch & I'll wear that cheerleading ''uni'' any day ! |
