larry,
>> Or is it possible that the Nasdaq pulls back after it hits 2k? We are only 8 points away from my estimated 1998 high.<<
1,000 pt marks use to be a big thing when DOW was at 3,000. Now
I don't think we notice them any more. At least I don't. Also,
look at foreign markets...Japan was up at 35,000.
>>Well, MSFT report either fuels another rally, and highlights profit taking. I really believe that MSFT is about to enter a consolidation phase, and DELL is also about to get there, I mean a well deserved two week rest. Look at the other super studs, CSCO, YHOO!, and AOL are apparently tired. LU is already at my estimate of 90. Can it break
100 in the near term?<<
CSCO and LU are not at the same level of profitability as
MSFT and DELL. I think that's partly why they've slowed down.
Plus, their future as far as convergence of voice/data, is
not concrete, so nobody has a solid idea of where CSCO and LU
will be playing the game. Look at AT&T and TCI. There trying
to solve the same problem, and getting rejected by the market.
Clearly the voice/data thing is not planned out enough in lots
of peoples head. But it is definitely coming...
MSFT, well they keep cranking. And Win98 looks like it'll
be as profitable as Win96, and it's not even a major product.
And when was the last time anything slowed down MSFT? MSFT has
the track record.
DELL also has the track record. It's survived the E.Asia
thing. Compaq is a good company, but they've fallen apart
lately. Why hasn't DELL fallen apart? For now lets just say
we don't know. But what do know is that DELL is succeeding
where nobody else is. Same with MSFT. The entire tech sector
was in the hole because of E.Asia and inventory problems,
but these two are the survivors.
We're in a climate where no investor wants to take a risk.
Big Caps are a must.
The other thing that explains these guys going up is the
30-year bond. Interest rates are at 30 year lows, and going
lower. MSFT and DELL have to be corrected upwards
to account for the new rates.
Because of this, I don't think things will slow down until it
gets where it wants to go. Profit takers can get off and
take profits, but at the risk of being left behind. I think
we'll know we're at a top when things slow down a bit more,
when we're given more chances take profits...
Actually, that's the only thing on my mind with DELL & MSFT
is when can I get off the train and maximize my profits. It will
then take a rest, maybe massive correction....but it'll be time
to get on it again by fall or later.
So, to sum things up: how do we time these beasts so we make
more $$<gg>
I'm sticking to my original thought. When I see volume go
down (barring non-related external forces), that will be my
sign of a top.
good luck,
joe |
