Tero,
I am an intruder from the QCOM thread so you know
where I am coming from. It was indeed an excellent
post, but you make some factual and logical mistakes,
in my opinion.
First, you compare QCOM in the late 90s to Nokia in
the early 90s and you expect QCOM stock to perform in
a similar way. That is not a fair comparison, Tero.
Ericsson for years was trying to convince everybody
that CDMA was not going to work in the market place.
So QCOM not only had to prove that its technology is
commercially viable as an alternative to other wireless
technologies, but it also had to fight a deliberate
misinformation campaign ( remember Bill Frezza?).
Nokia, on the other hand, did not have to fight
technology battles against anybody, it did not have to
fight a misinformation campaign and it also had your
Government on its side. Given all the odds QCOM has
done tremendously well. In other words, this your
expectation that all companies in the world have to
perform equally at the same stage of their development
regardless from market conditions cannot be serious.
Now, I am not going to challenge you on all your
numbers that you have thrown into your post. You are
deliberately very selective in all the statistics you
provide. Somehow you do not mention that Mexico in
the last month with its ninety million people went 100%
cdmaOne. You forget to mention that Japan is replacing
their domestically developed cellular system with
another digital technology. And for some reason it is
not GSM; guess what it is. Yesterday they launched a
nation-wide cdmaOne network and they will have
100% coverage in a year from now. Now, be
intellectually honest, and post a simple answer to the
following simple questions: how is GSM doing in
Japan, anyway? Who is providing GSM service there
and if nobody, then who is planning to provide it in a
foreseeable future? Is there any GSM trial system in
Japan? Well, there is a cdmaOne trial system in China...
I could go on and on about your selectivity. But I am
more interested at this point in your logic.
You keep bringing up these numbers about how GSM
phones are better than CDMA phones. But, Tero, if the
reason for this is because GSM is technologically
superior to cdmaOne, then why for Heaven's sake did
NOKIA and ERICSSON choose CDMA as the basis for
3rd generation standard? Won't they be bogged by the
same problems? If, on the other hand, you believe that
it is not CDMA problem but rather poor design quality
by QCOM, Sony, Samsung etc., then your logic suffers
when you are trying to explain that the world is not
adopting CDMA because GSM is technologically
"better".
I also strongly disagree with your argument that just
because CDMA was coming into the market few years
later than GSM, it should not have been coming at all. I
am not sure how to respond to this. This argument by
extension can apply to any innovation. Your logic
suffers here as well, Tero.
Yes, USA, has a fragmented market and it is painful.
But you have to explain to me why do you think that
GSM does have rights to exist and CDMA does not. I
strongly believe that eventually from this current market
fragmentation something good will come out. The fact
that North America has experience in developing,
deploying and operating CDMA networks will be a
huge advantage in the future.
You mention that QCOM Q phone flopped. Yes, it did.
But, Tero, you know very well what "flopped" there. It
was not electronics or any particular piece of QCOM
design. Because plastics supplier delivered then out of
spec the phone case sometimes was cracking. As to
your question when a new model will be available I
think we will know it very soon from the next week
conference call. I strongly suspect that it is already being
shipped to service providers and they must be
conducting some field tests.
Tero, I think that Nokia is an excellent company. I also
think that your QCOM bashing is way off base. You
may eventually convince me that QCOM is not worth a
dime but you would have to come up with better logic.
Frankly, I do not think you would be able to, not
because you do not have intellectual ability, (quite to
the contrary, I do enjoy you stimulating posts) but
because facts are really stacked against you. Given
the circumstances though, I think you are putting a
good fight, but, alas, you are loosing it, Tero.
Cheers... Alex |
