I have shorted Yahoo for the same reasons as the rest of you,
I mean, imagine if we valued Diney to include the the 'site name value' of espn's sportzone, a site that get a good proportion of the unique user hits that yahoo does. I know I'm a fundamental trader, which ignores the 'herd mentality' that has been driving yahoo up, but give me a break!
look at the PE (1000's to 1 right now). Do we really think that yahoo can grow earning at 100's of times the rate of dell?
Their revenue and profits are based on one formula, advertising, which is based on page views per banner. Now, either the number of page views will grow dramatically (I mean 100 times in the next year), or they will have a lot more ads per page. Sure, they can increase rates (price per page view) a little by espousing targeted marketing, but they have tried this for a year and prices have only gone up 30-40%. This won't go up much more. Sure they can expand the content, but so can everyone else on the web and this just spreads out the hits they get to different pages.
Do we really think netscape and MS, who have their pages hardcoded into browsers, will continuously pass this ad revenue off to yahoo?, NO, they will start offering their own search capabilities. I mean, give me a break, should yahoo be market capped higher then netscape!?!?! I jst hope I got my timing right. If not, it will keep going up as the herd keeps thinking that a 'split' actuallu effects value.
When will all of you cover if it keeps going up?
Finally had the guts to short,
john Thrall |
