BB,
>>IMHO, E-wave is valid, the problem is in the interpretation.
One can say that on Astrology, too ;->
After so disclaiming, here's my count.
the-privateer.com
On the 20 week MA (green line) the small waves are filtered enough to give a clear picture:
Start of count - Double bottom low October and December '87.
1- July '90 @Dow 3000
Wave 1 duration 31 months, ground covered 1250 pts = 71% gain.
2- Jan '91 @Dow 2470
Wave 2 duration 6 months, ground lost (to October low 2360, the A) 530 pts = 18% loss. 530/1250=0.424 almost fib. ratio.
3- Jan '94 @Dow 3980
Wave 3 duration 36 months, ground covered 1510 pts = 61.1% gain.
Theres a clear 5 count inside this wave.
4- Nov/Dec '94 @Dow 3670
Wave 4 duration 11 months, ground lost (to April low @3600) 380 pts = 9.5%.
5- July/Aug '98 @Dow 9400(?)
Wave 5 duration already 42 months, ground covered 5700 pts = 158%(!)
Something wrong with this count, or something wrong with the market. April '98 should have been THE TOP.
From 12/94 also 5 count
1- 2/96 (14 months)
2- 7/96 (5 months)
3- 8/97 (13 months)
4- 1/98 (5 months)
5- Not yet.
Note the 20 week MA is still climbing. It climbed in March '97, which I mistakenly interpreted as the 3-4 count (Wrong! Not enough duration, and the 20 weeks MA was still climbing). The march correction just marked the mid point of the 3 wave.
When 20 weeks MA turns, it's curtains.
ATG |
