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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE)
SIII 0.00010000.0%May 12 5:00 PM EST

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To: stockroach who wrote (11514)7/16/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Bill Lin  Read Replies (3) of 14577
 
Reponding to Frank's post of Intel leaving graphics business...
I put it at less than 1% probability.
They are already integrating the i740 into their EX (?) chipset.

tomshardware.com has a complete listing of coming chipsets from Intel (better than my bad memory).

So the likelihood that INTC will walk away from their $440mm investment in C&T for a $40mm patent set should be pretty low.

Anyway, it won't helpt S3 to get C&T in exchange for the patents. There has to be a 50% consolidation in the graphics chip industry. There are simply too many competitors and products out there.

Until a oligopoly exists (3-4 competitors controlling 80% of the market) and pricing power exists, good companies like TDFX, TDDDF, ATI and S3 will not be priced with high PSR (price to sales ratios)

The duration, I'm afraid, will be like the DRAM market.

BL
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